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Artificial Intelligence Can’t Replace Free Markets

Blog Post | Economics

Artificial Intelligence Can’t Replace Free Markets

Algorithms process data from the past while economic decisions are dynamic and forward-looking.

Summary: Can AI replace markets? Several recent arguments have been made that AI could plan the economy better than prices, allocating resources through algorithms instead of free exchange. But such visions ignore the essential role of property, prices, and profit in generating information, guiding innovation, and enabling true economic coordination.


Imagine artificial intelligence controlling the economy. That’s the future envisioned in three recent manifestos. Law professor Ted Parson introduces “Max,” an AI that overlays markets with Pigouvian price tweaks—taxes here, subsidies there—until every externality is neutralized. Computer scientist Spyridon Samothrakis proposes a mesh of data hubs and reinforcement-learning schedulers to guide economic coordination, resource allocation, and production. And economist Leo Schlichter argues that an AI system could reduce output, respect ecological limits, and meet human needs through participatory dashboards and feedback loops. Their pitch is straightforward: AI can help to replace the function of prices and the free market that generates them.

Not so fast.

Economic coordination isn’t a problem to be solved by computing an optimal answer. It emerges from the decentralized decisions and adjustments made by billions of economic actors—each with their own plans, preferences, and knowledge—in an ongoing, evolutionary process. Certain rules and institutions are essential for transforming decentralized decision-making into orderly and socially beneficial outcomes. The three Ps—property rights, prices, and profit and loss—provide the three Is—information, incentives and innovation.

Prices enable people to engage in economic calculation, which forms the basis for the rational allocation of scarce resources among alternative ends. Prices also function as decentralized feedback loops. “A price is a signal wrapped up in an incentive,” note Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok. This dual signal communicates information about relative scarcities and simultaneously encourages economic actors to adjust their plans accordingly. When lithium prices rise, producers and consumers conserve, recycle, innovate, and explore alternatives.

The belief that AI can achieve comparable results to free markets, let alone surpass them, reflects a misplaced confidence in computation and a misunderstanding of the price system. The problem for the would-be AI planners is that prices don’t exist like facts about the physical world for a computer to collect and process. They arise from competitive bidding over scarce resources and are inseparable from real market exchanges. Moreover, prices aren’t fixed inputs to be assumed in advance. They are continually being discovered and formed by entrepreneurs testing ideas about future consumer wants and resource constraints.

Economic models that treat prices as given overlook the entrepreneurial actions that create them in the first place. Ludwig von Mises made this point in 1920: Without real market exchange, central planners lack meaningful prices for capital goods. Consequently, they can’t calculate whether directing steel to railways rather than hospitals adds or destroys value.

AI can process vast amounts of data—but always from the past. Economic action, by contrast, is forward-looking. An algorithm may extrapolate trends, but it can’t anticipate innovation and changing tastes. It can’t discover what hasn’t been imagined.

Free markets, by contrast, continuously produce real and reliable price information. That happens through the interplay of the three Ps. These institutions force participants to put skin in the game—bearing real costs for mistakes and earning profits for insight. Simulated markets can’t replicate this feedback. Without consequences, algorithmic outputs fail to elicit true valuations or meaningful behavioral adjustments.

AI’s economic champions confuse data processing with discovery and overlook how incentives shape the data AI receives. If political actors influence prices, then the input into algorithms is already distorted. “Garbage in, garbage out” still applies—only now the garbage is processed faster and packaged in technical jargon. AI may appear precise, but it has the same blind spots that doomed prior central planning efforts.

Centralizing decisions also distorts behavior. Entrepreneurs anticipating expropriation or opaque regulations may withdraw, reduce investment, or exit entirely. Consumers may hoard or barter. The very data planners rely on become unreliable as people adapt their behavior to avoid being captured by the system. Our research on post-socialist transitions shows that meaningful price signals only re-emerged after private exchange and budget discipline were restored. Computational power didn’t restore order—institutional reform did.

Crucially, markets coordinate existing knowledge and generate new information. The price system reveals hidden scarcities and helps discover untapped opportunities. That discovery process is the engine of growth. Central planning by bureaucrats or algorithms can’t substitute for it. As Friedrich Hayek observed, “the value of freedom rests on the opportunities it provides for unforeseen and unpredictable actions.”

Economics and engineering don’t substitute. If allocation becomes a technical problem and AI the solution, society may shift talent from exploration to optimization. But prosperity depends on experimentation, not blueprint execution. Economists should embrace what Hayek called catallaxy—order born from exchange among strangers, each pursuing new ends with evolving means. Centralized intelligence freezes that process, replacing dynamic evolution with rigidity.

AI is a powerful tool for recognizing patterns and improving processes. But it can’t replace free markets. It can’t generate genuine prices, account for opportunity costs, or bear entrepreneurial risk. Economic vitality still depends on free exchange, not on optimization routines run in sterile data centers. Rather than resurrect central planning with AI, policymakers should focus on strengthening the institutional foundations that make real market coordination possible.

This article was published in the Wall Street Journal on 7/21/2025.

Bloomberg | Goods Market Efficiency

Amazon and Walmart Compete to Better Serve Rural Communities

“Many rural online shoppers are used to waiting half a week or longer for purchases to arrive. Amazon, which disclosed its $4 billion rural delivery push last year, has narrowed that to less than 24 hours for 1 in 5 rural and small-town households, according to a Bloomberg analysis of delivery times for commonly purchased items. The company offers 48-hour delivery to 62% of rural households, the analysis found.

The payoff could be huge. Rural shoppers in the US collectively spend $1 trillion a year on clothing, electronics, household goods and other items, representing about 20% of retail purchases excluding cars and gasoline, according to Morgan Stanley. Amazon aims to recondition those shoppers to expect quick delivery, which would play to its strengths and make the company top-of-mind for online purchases.

Amazon’s biggest obstacle is Walmart Inc., which claimed the heartland decades ago during an aggressive expansion on its path to become the world’s largest retailer. Walmart has spent years training rural shoppers to come to its stores for groceries and then snag clothes, TVs and crockpots while there. It has a big head start on Amazon in proximity, with stores and Sam’s Clubs located within a 10-mile drive of nearly two-thirds of rural households, Bloomberg’s analysis shows. Walmart is also upping its e-commerce game, turning its thousands of locations into delivery hubs and pickup locations for products ordered online.”

From Bloomberg.

Bloomberg | Financial Market Development

South Africa Private Investment Plans Triple as Reforms Advance

“Planned capital investment in South Africa surged last year as private commitments tripled, while government projects excluding state companies declined, according to a report by Nedbank Group Ltd.

The value of newly announced plans climbed 16% to 705.6 billion rand ($44 billion), the lender said in its Capital Expenditure Project Listing report released Monday.

Private firms committed to investing 382.5 billion rand, up from 116.2 billion rand in 2024. Major initiatives included Vodacom Group Ltd.’s 85.2 billion-rand expansion and modernization of digital infrastructure through network upgrades and an accelerated 5G rollout, and NT55 Investments’ planned 50 billion-rand inland port in the central Gauteng province…

By contrast, the value of projects planned by the government itself tumbled to 2.9 billion rand last year, from 204 billion rand in 2024, when the authorities announced a 43.7 billion-rand housing and community development program and a 35.8 billion-rand second phase of the Rooiwal wastewater project.

Years of underinvestment and mismanagement have left Africa’s largest economy with a massive infrastructure backlog that’s curbed output. President Cyril Ramaphosa has previously estimated that the country needs as much as 1.6 trillion rand in public-sector infrastructure investment and a further 3.2 trillion rand from the private sector for it to achieve its infrastructure goals by 2030.

The government has sought to crowd in private investment through reforms while shifting spending toward growth-enhancing infrastructure. Measures under Operation Vulindlela — a task force set up by Ramaphosa to address energy and freight constraints — are progressing, with 47% of reforms on track and most of the remainder advancing despite delays, the National Treasury said Friday.”

From Bloomberg.

Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India | Goods Market Efficiency

India’s Recent Durables Goods and Asset Ownership Progress

“This study compares the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023–24 with 2011–12 and finds significant advancements in spending on durables goods and ownership of key durable assets. These changes represent shifting priorities and aspirations for consumption among Indian households and improvements in quality of life. Additionally, our analysis focuses on the Bottom 40 (B40) percent of the households by consumption, which have been extensively targeted through programs of the Government of India and state governments. Studying the consumption and ownership trends of these households is an important measure of the effectiveness of welfare policies. Consumption patterns of households have transformed significantly over the last decade with households spending a smaller portion of the monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) on food items. Across the three components – food items, consumables and services, and durable goods the share of food has fallen to less to than 50% in both sectors. Consequently, a greater share of household consumption expenditure is now non-food spending on consumables and services, and durable goods. Consumables and services are the largest component of household spending in urban areas.”

From Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India.

Blog Post | Innovation

The Land of Ice, Fire, and Innovation

Innovation has served Iceland for 1,150 years. Why change a working recipe?

Summary: Iceland has long thrived through innovation and freedom. Its history is one of transforming scarcity into strength and discovery. Joining the European Union could trade entrepreneurial vitality for bureaucratic constraint and regulation. Iceland’s story proves that wealth flows not from the ground, but from the boundless resource of human imagination.


I recently had the pleasure of visiting Iceland, a country of about 390,000 people. The place feels like a mash-up of Hawaii and Alaska, with a land area roughly the size of Kentucky. Iceland has around 130 volcanoes, with about 30 considered active. Along with the volcanoes there are around 500 earthquakes per week. Many of these are microquakes (below a magnitude of 2.0) that go unnoticed, but about 44 a year register a magnitude of 4.0 or higher within 180 miles of the island.

The statue of Leif Erikson and the Hallgrímskirkja church in Reykjavík, Iceland

The International Monetary Fund projects Iceland’s GDP per capita to reach $81,220 in 2025, adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP). This compares to $89,110 for the US and $64,550 for the European Union (EU).

The purpose of my visit was to talk about why Iceland should or should not join the EU. The event was hosted by Students for Liberty Europe and RSE, the Icelandic Centre for Social and Economic Research. What does this topic have to do with our book, Superabundance?

In our book we argue that we’re experiencing a period of superabundance, where personal resource abundance is increasing faster than population growth. This period started about 200 years ago after millennia of stagnation. We attribute this in large part to people recognizing that the freedom to innovate lifts humanity out of poverty. Innovation is the discovering and sharing of valuable new knowledge in markets. Around 1820, the planet’s dormant entrepreneurs began to blossom and bear fruit. But Iceland has been innovating much longer than 200 years.

Iceland can be considered a creation of entrepreneurs. It was first settled around 874 CE by Norse explorers, primarily from Norway, led by Ingólfr Arnarson, who is traditionally recognized as the island’s first permanent settler. He established his homestead in what is now Reykjavík (“Smoky Bay”), named after the steam rising from nearby hot springs.

Throughout history, the creators have fled the takers—escaping oppression to found new realms of freedom where ideas could multiply and wealth could grow. This is the ancient rhythm of renewal that gave birth to America. The settlers of Iceland were largely Vikings, along with some Celtic slaves (it was typical of the times to enslave defeated peoples) and settlers from the British Isles. Drawn by the island’s fish and grazing land, they sought independence from Norway’s consolidating monarchy.

By 930 CE, the settlers established the Althing, one of the world’s oldest parliaments, at Þingvellir, creating a system of governance where chieftains met annually to settle disputes and make laws. This marked the start of the Icelandic Commonwealth, a decentralized society without a king.

Iceland’s Parliament House

The population grew to around 50,000 by the 11th century, sustained by farming, fishing, and trade. The Commonwealth lasted 332 years, until 1262, when internal conflicts and external pressure from Norway led Iceland to pledge allegiance to the Norwegian crown, ending its independence. This set the stage for centuries of foreign rule, first by Norway and later Denmark. Iceland finally achieved full independence 682 years later, in 1944, establishing the modern Republic of Iceland.

Wealth Is Knowledge and Growth Is Learning

Superabundance is based on the ideas of Julian Simon and George Gilder. Two of the book’s key principles are that wealth is knowledge and growth is learning. These apply directly to Iceland—a nation that turned scarcity into strength and desolation into discovery. With little arable land and few natural endowments, Icelanders learned that the ultimate resource was not in the soil or the waters but in the capacity to imagine and create.

When oil shocks hit in the 1970s, Iceland had little domestic energy. Rather than surrender to scarcity, Icelanders turned to what they had in superabundance. They drilled not for fossil fuels but for fire beneath the earth, turning volcanic fury into light and heat. Today, nearly all of Iceland’s power flows from geothermal and hydroelectric abundance—proof that energy, like wealth, begins not with matter but with knowledge.

And from this same well of ingenuity emerged a national symbol—the Blue Lagoon. The world-famous pools and spa were born from the overflow of the Svartsengi geothermal power station, where geothermal brine spilled into a lava field and transformed an industrial by-product into a national treasure. What began as an accident became an emblem of Icelandic creativity—a living harmony of mind and matter, fire and water.

The Blue Lagoon reminds us that wealth is not drawn from the ground but flows from the fountain of human imagination, where even the castoffs of creation can shimmer with new light. In Iceland, energy is not merely harnessed—it is redeemed.

In the early 20th century, Iceland was a country primarily reliant on imported coal to meet its energy needs. The first hydropower station was built in 1904, and today there are 15 stations producing 73 percent of the nation’s electricity. Geothermal represents the other 27 percent.

Ljósafoss Power Station

Abundant, affordable, and reliable energy is one of the fountainheads of modern civilization, turning ingenuity into prosperity. Yet Europe’s leaders, in their zeal to perfect nature, have turned against the very forces that sustain it. By dismantling coal, nuclear, and gas in favor of windmills and solar panels, they are not advancing progress but reversing it, replacing mastery with dependence and innovation with austerity. The continent that once ignited the Industrial Revolution now flirts with a new age of scarcity—an empire of entropy cloaked in virtue. The great tragedy is the belief that prosperity can be preserved by suppressing the freedom that created it. Prosperity follows those who dare to learn from the world, not those who try to silence it.

For Iceland to thrive, it must continue to unleash its creative energy—to innovate, to speak, and to let knowledge flow as freely as its geothermal springs. Iceland is proof that wealth is not in the ground but in the mind. When faced with the scarcity of matter, Icelanders discovered the infinite power of knowledge.

That same spirit of redemption drives Iceland’s modern economy. From deCODE genetics, which unlocked the secrets of the Icelandic genome, to Össur, whose prosthetics restore mobility with grace and precision, Iceland exports ideas more than goods. Its renewable energy now powers data centers and digital frontiers, where bits replace barrels and imagination fuels growth. And in the northern village of Ísafjörður, Kerecis has turned the skin of cod—once discarded as waste—into a life-giving biomaterial that heals human wounds across the world.

Iceland reminds us that every economy is a learning system, and every act of enterprise a revelation. Growth is not a race for resources but a search for truth—the discovery of new knowledge that multiplies as it is shared. In this sense, Iceland has learned its way into wealth, proving that in the long dialogue between man and nature, the mind is the great multiplier.

The story of Iceland is the story of civilization itself. Every act of creation is an act of learning, a small echo of the divine mind that made the world intelligible. Wealth in its truest form is not measured in metals or markets but in moments of revelation—when knowledge transforms scarcities into abundances. Iceland proved the eternal law of creativity: that human learning, illuminated by faith and freedom, can turn even the coldest rock—or the humblest fish—into a beacon of light.

Choose Wisely

So why would a nation of entrepreneurs and innovators want to be subject to a union of regulators and bureaucrats? As of 2024, the number of staff working for the European Commission is over 80,000 across all 76 EU bodies. That would be one regulator for every 4.8 Icelanders. The future of Iceland lies with leaders like Thor Jensen, Björgólfur Thor Björgólfsson, Fertram Sigurjonsson, Heiðar Guðjónsson, and Bala Kamallakharan, not armies of Brussels bureaucrats.

To secure its future, Iceland must remain a beacon of open inquiry and energy creativity. It should champion innovation over ideology—embracing every technology that multiplies human capability rather than constrains it. By coupling free markets with free minds, Iceland can continue to illuminate a path from scarcity to superabundance, showing the world that the greatest renewable resource is human creativity itself.

Choose wisely, Iceland. Your history is watching.

Find more of Gale’s work at his Substack, Gale Winds.